A Day in Autumn

It's a rainy autumn day here in Maryland, and that seems almost appropriate for my inaugural post. I've always liked autumn. For one, the cooler temperatures are refreshing after the heat of the summer. And in addition, there's something poignant about the end of summer's abundance and the approach of leaner times, when trees must drop their leaves and animals gather foodstocks to survive the cold and barren period of winter's dominance.

And it's that last point that makes autumn appropriate for the first post of this blog. I believe that we are approaching the point where summer turns to autumn, where the seaon of plenty we've had here in the USA, and likely in the western world as a whole, comes to an end. Our civilization is in the late days of September right now, in a sort of "Indian summer", and if we were smart, we'd be preparing for the long, coming winter.

However, we're not smart. That's the kicker. We are definitely the proverbial grasshoppers, playing away our last few warm days, ignoring the changing season. I had a conversation with a friend of mine who shares some of the same views a few years ago, and we tried to guess how long the US has before it comes to an end. All civilizations come to an end, right? Rome fell. So did the Greeks. And yes, I get that the countries still exist--but they are fundamentally different from what they once were, and they lost their positions of prominence in the world (to the detriment of their citizens, by the way). It's only reasonable to assume the US will fall one day as well.

Anyway, my friend estimated 50 years before the US "falls", putting the end our of civilization in about 2050. I was more optimistic, giving us 100 years, but lately I'm beginning to believe that my friend had it right. And you know what the worst thing is? Unlike the seasons, which run in an unchanging cycle, for us, winter doesn't have to come. It could be avoided, or at least postponed. As a matter of fact, it still could be postponed--there's a chance. In my view, science and technology just might rescue us from our current problems, but it will need to be transformational to do so, and today, even science is under assault. Failing some sort of transformational breakthrough, to maintain (and spread) our season of plenty we're forced to count on groups of humans making rational, even wise, decisions. And my faith in the human race (and governments especially) to accomplish this feat is asymptotically approaching zero.

Nonetheless, we can but try. And that's one reason for this blog--it's yet one more small voice, crying out into the ether, "Be smart! Make the right decisions for a change! Consider long-term implications and unintended consequences!" Maybe enough people will listen...

So, here we are in autumn, with winter coming. What can we do to stave off the cold? As far as civilization goes, that's far too big a topic for a single post, but some ideas will be explored in future postings. In the meantime, here's a quick suggestion for you, individually, to warm up on a cold day. Make soup! Take a look at today's menu and you'll find a suggestion for one soup that's easy to make and will relieve the chill in your bones. It may not save the world, but at least it will keep your family warm and fed...